I was reading a statement from one of leading banks, “The notion of ‘short’ or sell Canada became a growing theme in international circles, as falling oil prices added to concerns about an overheated housing market and high household indebtedness. A few months later, however, it seems the bears have not been proven right.
I always tell my clients please don’t compare up’s and down’s of commodity market with real estate, commodity is traded daily and work on different parameters. Real estate is long term, tangible; what may be the situation the average growth over a period of say 5 years is approx if 4-5%!
In summary, high housing prices and deteriorating affordability do not cause housing market
corrections, meaningful and sustained recessions do (often brought on by external shocks). Lenders
and their mortgage underwriting from the major banks appear to be conservative based on the nearrecord
low number of mortgages in arrears and the international bank safety rankings. This is in
addition to the fact that financial institutions have also been forced to be more stringent by the
tightened mortgage insurance rules.
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